Climate Services for Resilient Development in South Asia: Annual Report 2016-17

Within South Asia, efforts to develop agricultural climate services under CSRD are led by the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT). CSRD supports the agricultural climate services track described in the Investment Options Paper (IOP) for CSRD in Bangladesh, compiled by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) in 2016. CSRD’s core objectives are to prepare farmers, extension services, and agricultural policy makers with actionable climate information and crop management advisories to reduce agricultural production risks, thereby increasing the resilience of smallholder farming communities. These broad objectives are underpinned by three aligned project objectives that include (1) the development of impact-based national-scale decision tool platforms to support the Bangladesh Meteorological Department’s (BMD) agrometeorology track, (2) collaborative development and refinement of South Asian regional-scale agro-climate decision support tools, services, and products, and (3) coordination with the Asian Development Bank and other CSRD partners to boost awareness and use of climate information and services in the agricultural sector. This report summarizes CSRD activities, achievements, and challenges during the first year (from November 2016 through December 2017)

TAFSSA-farmer focus group discussion report: Rajshahiand Rangpur Divisions, Bangladesh

This brief describes the first farmer household consultations that were carried out in the process of determining which diversified cropping patterns should be implemented in the TAFSSA on-station and on-farm trails in Northern Bangladesh

Improving pumpset selection to support intensification of groundwater irrigation in the Eastern Indo-Gangetic Plains

Intensification of groundwater irrigation is central to goals of improving food security and reducing chronic poverty faced by millions of rural households across the eastern Indo-Gangetic Plains (EIGP) of Nepal and parts of eastern India. At present, levels of groundwater use and access in the EIGP lag far behind other areas of South Asia despite abundant available groundwater resources. A key reason for prevailing access constraints is the dependence on diesel pumpsets for accessing groundwater, which are typically unsubsidised and therefore expensive to purchase and operate. To date, efforts to reduce access costs have focused almost exclusively on how to incentivise adoption of alternative electric or solar-powered pumping technologies, which are viewed as being cheaper to operate and less environmentally damaging due to their lower operational carbon emissions. In contrast, there has been little attention paid to identifying opportunities to make existing diesel pump systems more cost effective for farmers to operate in order to support adaptation to climate change and reduce poverty. In this study, we use evidence from 116 detailed in-situ pump tests along with interviews with pumpset dealers, mechanics and farmers in the Nepal Terai to assess how and why fuel efficiency and operational costs of diesel pump irrigation are affected by farmers’ pumpset selection decisions. We show that costs diesel pumpset irrigation can be reduced significantly by supporting and incentivising farmers (e.g., through equipment advisories, improved supply chains for maintenance services and spare parts) to invest in newer low-cost, portable and smaller horsepower pumpset designs that are more effectively matched to local operating conditions in the EIGP than older Indian manufactured engines that have historically been preferred by farmers in the region. Such interventions can help to unlock potential for intensified irrigation water use in the EIGP, contributing to goals of improving agricultural productivity and resilience to climate extremes while also strengthening farmers capacity to invest in emerging low-carbon pumping technologies.</p

Drivers of groundwater utilization in water-limited rice production systems in Nepal

Most rice farmers in Nepal’s Terai region do not fully utilize irrigation during breaks in monsoon rainfall. This leads to yield losses despite abundant groundwater resources and ongoing expansion of diesel pumps and tubewell infrastructure. We investigate this puzzle by characterizing delay factors governing tubewell irrigation across wealth and precipitation gradients. After the decision to irrigate, different factors delay irrigation by roughly one week. While more sustainable and inexpensive energy for pumping may eventually catalyze transformative change, we identify near-term interventions that may increase rice farmers’ resilience to water stress in smallholder-dominated farming communities based on prevailing types of irrigation infrastructure.</p

Variable climate suitability for wheat blast (Magnaporthe oryzae pathotype Triticum) in Asia: results from a continental-scale modeling approach

Crop fungal diseases constitute a major cause of yield loss. The development of crop disease monitoring and forecasting tools is an important effort to aid farmers in adapting to climate variability and change. Recognizing weather as a main driver of fungal disease outbreaks, this work assesses the climate suitability for wheat blast (Magnaporthe oryzae pathotype Triticum, MoT) development in Asian wheat-producing countries. MOT was reported for the first time in Bangladesh in 2016 and could spread to other countries, provided that environmental conditions are suitable to spore development, distribution, and infection. With results from a generic infection model driven by air temperature and humidity, and motivated by the necessity to assess the potential distribution of MoT based on the response to weather drivers only, we quantify potential MOT infection events across Asia for the period 1980–2019. The results show a potential higher incidence of MOT in Bangladesh, Myanmar, and some areas of India, where the number of potential infection (NPI) events averaged up to 15 during wheat heading. Interannual trends show an increase in NPI over those three countries, which in turns show their higher interannual variability. Cold/dry conditions in countries such as Afghanistan and Pakistan appear to render them unlikely candidates for MOT establishment. The relationship between seasonal climate anomalies and NPI suggests a greater association with relative humidity than with temperature. These results could help to focus future efforts to develop management strategies where weather conditions are conducive for the establishment of MOT

Evaluating the value of agricultural climate services using hindcast experiments Methods development in India and Bangladesh

This research note offers insights to a new method for understanding the economic benefits of utilizing climate services for decision making in agriculture, which can provide justification for the public and private investment in provision of climate services to farmers. In order to understand the potential benefits of weather information for improved farm decision making, case studies from wheat farming in India and Bangladesh are presented

Agriculture, Food and Nutrition Security: Concept, Datasets and Opportunities for Computational Social Science Applications

Ensuring food and nutritional security requires effective policy actions that consider the multitude of direct and indirect drivers. The limitations of data and tools to unravel complex impact pathways to nutritional outcomes have constrained efficient policy actions in both developed and developing countries. Novel digital data sources and innovations in computational social science have resulted in new opportunities for understanding complex challenges and deriving policy outcomes. The current chapter discusses the major issues in the agriculture and nutrition data interface and provides a conceptual overview of analytical possibilities for deriving policy insights. The chapter also discusses emerging digital data sources, modelling approaches, machine learning and deep learning techniques that can potentially revolutionize the analysis and interpretation of nutritional outcomes in relation to food production, supply chains, food environment, individual behaviour and external drivers. An integrated data platform for digital diet data and nutritional information is required for realizing the presented possibilities

On the Utility of Agronomic Monsoon Onset Definitions for Rainfed Aman Rice in Bangladesh

The monsoon-season ‘aman' rice crop contributes approximately 40% of total rice production in Bangladesh, where per-capita rice consumption rates are among the highest in the world. Aman rice is primarily rainfed and relies largely on monsoon rainfall, more specifically monsoon onset and withdrawal. Aman rice farmers’ perception on the monsoon onset for the preparation of seedling does not necessarily coincide with typical meteorological onset definitions and varies with different locations. Therefore, agronomic definitions of monsoon onset, rather than meteorological definitions are needed in order to produce climate forecast information that can better support smallholder farmers’ decision making, and the definitions should be tailored for different regions. In this study, we analyzed historical daily rainfall from three regional weather stations across a north-south gradient in Bangladesh where rainfed transplanted rice is the dominant summer crop. We defined threshold numbers including the duration of the initial wet spell, amount of rainfall received during the initial wet spell, length of dry spell during the monsoon, and the maximum amount of rainfall received during the dry spell to develop a set of actionable and region-specific agronomic onset definitions. Because transplanting dates can affect crop productivity, a region-specific onset definition was evaluated in terms of crop model simulated attainable yields in comparison with the results of (a) conventional meteorological onset defined by the quantity of rainfall received and (b) static onset date definitions. When year-to-year varying agronomic onset definition was used predicted attainable yields were higher than those derived from traditional fixed onset date in the case of fully rainfed condition. If irrigation is available at the time of transplanting, however, simulated yields did not show distinctive differences between the different onset methods, underscoring how irrigation can be used as a climate-smart adaptive strategy to cope with monsoon variability. Our tailored agronomic definitions of monsoon onset can be used to assist rainfed rice farmers in choosing more favourable dates for the establishment of seedbeds and transplanting, especially when more advanced seasonal or sub- seasonal forecasts are available in addition to real-time and high-resolution rainfall monitoring

Multi-level socioecological drivers of agrarian change:Longitudinal evidence from mixed rice-livestock-aquaculture farming systems of Bangladesh

Coastal systems are facing natural and human-driven change coupled with a rising population. With increasing shifts in socioecological conditions during the past several decades, it is important to understand how socioecological drivers at different hierarchical levels: -micro, -meso, and -macro affect coastal farming systems, which play a crucial role in the livelihoods of coastal dwellers. Mixed rice-livestock-aquaculture farming in Southern Bangladesh exemplifies the rapid change occurring in many of the world's coastal farming systems in response to these drivers. We used panel data observations from the above study area and modeled trajectories of farm typologies, and the impact of multi-level socioecological drivers by a novel approach. Our approach integrates: (1) a well-articulated conceptual frame of change observed using (2) a temporal view of the potential drivers, change process and farm type outcomes, with the twenty years panel data of 502 households that is analyzed by means of (3) multivariate statistics in conjunction with panel data models that operationalize the conceptual frame. Our approach allows (a) estimating dynamic effects over time that typically cannot be estimated in a cross-sectional data set, (b) distinguishing between time-invariant fixed and time dependent random effects of multi-level socioecological drivers, and (c) controlling for omitted variables to a certain extent. Considering farming systems both within and outside of polder embankment systems intended to protect against oceanic water intrusion, we found a gradual shift from heterogeneous, rice-livestock farm types to more homogenous farms with less livestock and more off-farm activities. Micro-level factors including farm plot fragmentation, farmers' experience in cropping, machinery, salinity and soil fertility were influencing changes in farming systems. Meso-level factors including markets, road infrastructure, labor availability, access to extension and land tenure also affect the trajectory of farming systems change. Among macro-level drivers, increasing population density positively and significantly influenced cropping intensity among farms outside polder systems. Within polders, a positive but non-significant trend was observed for the influence of population density on cropping intensity. Our data also indicate negative and significant influence of cyclonic storms on cropping intensity over time in both areas. Our results underscore the importance of accounting for multiple levels of socioecological drivers of change when developing appropriate policy options for sustainable development in South Asia's coastal farming systems